With just over a week left till the second round of Ecuador’s presidential elections, the candidates for the presidency of Ecuador are vying for every last vote and seeking to establish strategic political alliances. After a heated debate in which both candidates used direct attacks and accusations of criminal activity, the candidates have focused on securing support from key sectors of Ecuadorian society.
The latest polls are inconclusive. Both candidates have been sharing the specific polls in which they are ahead over the other candidate, which indicates that the difference between them is not very significant. Generally, polls indicate a 2-5% difference between the candidates, so it is still uncertain who will win the April 13 elections.
An alliance to stop Noboa
Luisa González, candidate of the Citizen Revolution movement (RC), who reached 44% of the valid votes in the first electoral round, signed a historic agreement with Pachakutik (PK). PK is the electoral arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (CONAIE), which represents the most relevant social movement in terms of the latest social mobilizations in Ecuador in 2019 and 2021. The agreement has the clear and pragmatic goal of preventing Noboa from winning the presidential re-election, allowing both sides to overcome a previously tense relationship.
The agreement was signed on March 30 in Alausí, Chimborazo, where the majority of the population is Indigenous and where, two years ago, a landslide caused the death of 65 people.
In the first round of the elections, PK ran Leonidas Iza as its presidential candidate, and reached third place with a little more than 5% of the vote. There are several aspects that differentiate González from Iza. The former has assumed a position closer to a very cautious social democracy in alliance with business sectors. Iza, on the other hand, proposed a popular government closer to the positions of the classical left.
The key agreements include:
- the implementation of a security plan that respects human rights
- respecting the previous and informed consultation of communities for any economic development project in the territories
- avoiding the expansion of oil fields
- reestablishing the VAT at 12%
However, there were two issues that, in the past, were thorny and made an alliance between both political groups impossible.
The maximum leader of the RC himself, former President Rafael Correa, spoke several times of his intention to convene a Constituent Assembly (something that Noboa himself promises to do if he wins). Iza, on the contrary, always opposed such a possibility because of the danger of abandoning the 2008 Constitution and that a new constitution would be drafted in which certain rights would be lost.
González accepted that her government would not call for a Constituent Assembly that restricts the rights of nature or attempts against the conquests of the peoples of Ecuador. Likewise, González also pledged not to privatize any public company or any activity developed by the State in strategic sectors (health, education, defense, energy, etc.) and to strengthen public investment in those strategic sectors.
Why is this a historic agreement?
The agreement is saluted as historic due to the historic tensions between Correism and CONAIE. The two were at odds during the government of Rafael Correa, who pursued oil and mining exploitation despite the claims and mobilizations of the Indigenous populations. In addition, during the Correa administration, there were several trials against Indigenous protesters who were accused of terrorism. Correa at some point labeled several Indigenous leaders as “golden ponchos”, referring to the emblematic clothing of the Indigenous populations of the highlands who wear ponchos and who, according to him, have many privileges.
Yet, the stakes of the crisis facing Ecuador and the promise that it will worsen with the re-election of Noboa for a full term in office, allowed the sides to find common ground in the face of a second round of elections that promises to be very tight. In this regard, González said, “It is a historic day. Today this unity is an act of love for 18 million Ecuadorians, it is an act of commitment to the Ecuadorian people, it is a demonstration of political maturity, of maturity that we leaders who seek the transformation of the country must have.”
On his part, Guillermo Churuchumbi, coordinator of PK, said “They want to accuse us that we are selling and mortgaging Pachakutik. We are never going to do it, because we have been in the streets when it has been necessary… We cannot turn our back on this country, that is why we have decided to create a process of unity of the left, with the unity of the countryside and the city.”
A programmatic or skeptical agreement?
While many consider PK’s support to González fundamental because of the close nature of the race, others warn that the alliance could awaken the suspicions of the most conservative and reactionary sectors of society that could potentially sympathize with González, who see PK as a dangerous movement with which it is not possible to reach lasting agreements.
On the other hand, several analysts have pointed out that Leonidas Iza’s popularity could be damaged after the agreement, precisely because in the past the Indigenous movement has confronted Correism and there is no guarantee, besides the agreement signed in Alausi, that this will not happen again in the hypothetical case that González wins.
In fact, Iza did not personally attend the signing of the agreement, citing personal health problems, although some have interpreted his absence as a skeptical attitude towards Correism. In addition, the former presidential candidate announced that if the agreement is not respected by a possible González government, CONAIE will take to the streets.
In a recorded message, Iza said, “Mrs. candidate Luisa González, our vote is not a blank check for anyone, nor is it a mortgage of our political project, much less of individual interests for positions or spaces in the public administration or, even worse, to co-govern.”
In this sense, Iza requested a change of attitude from González towards the Indigenous movement if she wants to achieve a lasting alliance: “I want to say emphatically that we fought against the persecution during the government of Alianza Pais, of Rafael Correa Delgado, I want to make it clear, that does not allow us to remain in silence but to overcome the moments that have meant mistakes and horrors for our people… We demand a different position from Mrs. González and not rhetorical answers that many times have been wrongly made by the presidents. We believe that the government of Luisa González could represent a different and differentiated stage from the former president, from his mistakes and horrors.”
