If there is a buzzword in Ecuador, it is “crisis.” Everyone points out that most economic, political, and even ideological relations are in “crisis.” This perpetual state of defenselessness undoubtedly allows the emergence of a specific social phenomenon: social passivity and fear in the face of uncertainty. As the Canadian writer Naomi Klein explained, it is also the key to the implementation of new models of capitalist accumulation.
Ecuador is currently facing three fundamental crises: an electrical crisis, an economic crisis (which is aggravated by the previous one), and a security crisis. In the face of this, the neoliberal program of Daniel Noboa’s government has not been able to offer concrete solutions, but rather has speculated with actions that are not usually successful.
The fact is that neoliberalism, so defended by the politicians in power, shuns strong public investment, centralized coordination of the different functions of the state, and sovereign decision-making on security, economy, and foreign policy. In times of serious internal upheaval, neoliberalism is unable to offer effective solutions.
Ecuador in the dark worsens the economic crisis
Ecuador is going through a severe energy crisis that is plunging Ecuadorians into 10-hour blackouts. Local news reports are constantly informing about the enormous economic losses the country is suffering: a reduction in production of up to 40%, layoffs of workers, and closures of businesses are just some of the consequences of a country that, according to the Central Bank of Ecuador, registers an economic contraction of 2.2% during the second half of 2024. In short, the country “does not see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Months ago, his own Secretary of Electricity informed Noboa that hard times were coming and that urgent measures had to be taken; the President decided to ignore her, fire her, and initiate a lawsuit against her. Ecuador, during the neoliberal governments of Moreno and Lasso, did not continue with the hydroelectric construction plan projected during the Correa administration, so there is no short or medium-term solution to the energy crisis. Some experts point out that the blackouts could last until March of next year, something that would devastate the national economy.
Noboa’s passive solution has been the contracting of barges that are not generating the promised number of megawatts effectively and the rationing of electricity. The previous and current governments did not repair the hydroelectric plants in time and many of them are in danger of being damaged, even permanently. For the time being, Colombia has decided to stop selling electricity to Ecuador. The outlook is bleak.
Some politicians comment that the way the government is solving the crisis is due to its ineptitude in public administration. However, others suspect that something “darker” is being planned behind the crisis. According to such speculations, the poor management of the crisis is aimed at privatizing the hydroelectric sector in favor of the country’s oligarchic groups. Faced with an absent state, several neoliberal ideologues propose that the only solution is to hand over the administration of the hydroelectric park to large private companies. This would be in the same neoliberal policy line followed by the President and most right-wing political parties in Ecuador, and quite successfully promoted by the IMF and the World Bank.
Foreign military bases
However, the energy crisis is not the only problem that Ecuadorians are facing. The supposed Phoenix Plan of the Noboa government (which some politicians say never existed except as an election campaign slogan) does not seem to be able to eliminate organized crime, as the president himself promised during the campaign.
According to Noboa, if Ecuadorians gave him their support in the last referendum (in which several questions on security were asked and he received resounding popular backing) there would be a marked improvement in the fight against crime. And while homicide rates have dropped slightly, some experts say it is more likely due to the relocation of gangs to new sectors of the country, so they no longer have the need to confront each other so directly and openly. Despite this, the data does not match the “securitized” promises of Noboa, who needs a popularity bump ahead of the 2025 elections.
Perhaps that is why Noboa insists on his anti-sovereignty plan to bring foreign military bases to Ecuador, a matter that is prohibited by the Constitution in Article 5. Hence, the Executive intends to reform the Constitution to achieve his goal and play a little with the popularity that such a decision may bring him in the face of the next elections. The truth is that Ecuadorians are tired of insecurity, and any well-promoted solution could seem optimal and even attractive, even though, in this case, such a proposal contradicts a Constitution that was overwhelmingly approved by the popular vote.
On October 15, the Constitutional Court (CC) qualified as pertinent the proposal of the Executive to partially amend the Constitution, eliminating Article 5, which states “The establishment of foreign military bases or foreign installations for military purposes will not be allowed. It is prohibited to cede national military bases to foreign armed or security forces.” The Secretary of Communication, Irene Velez, informed that thanks to the endorsement of the CC, the President will send the proposal to the Legislative in the next few days. After that, the legislators will have to comply with a series of steps to qualify the question proposed by the President.
For now, there seems to be a consensus among the right-wing parties to reform the constitution in this aspect, even among those who are currently opposed to Noboa’s government, such as the Social Christian Party. For its part, the Citizen Revolution, party of former President Correa, opposes the proposal, considering it a “demagogic” plan to improve the image of the president and not to solve the security problems of the country. For her part, Lucia Posso, an independent legislator, said, “We have no light. The concern of the industrialists, of the small businesses, is that their activities are paralyzed and the blackout schedules are not respected. That is the problem in Ecuador, not the [foreign military] base.”
After passing through the National Assembly, the consultation will return to the CC which, if deemed appropriate, will be consulted in the next presidential and legislative elections of 2025. Some think that the question could be part of the second electoral round, in which Ecuadorians will choose their president between the two most-voted candidates of the first round. This could mean that Noboa, if he reaches the ballot, is a very valuable resource in the face of a second round that will surely be very close.
