Iran to not comply with sections of 2015 nuclear deal

Faced with ruthless US sanctions, Iran has decided to resume storage of enriched uranium and heavy water. US sanctions ban the export of these materials, which was originally allowed under the JCPOA

May 08, 2019 by Abdul Rahman
Iran is also aiming to exert pressure on the other signatories to the JCPOA to help salvage the deal.

Following months of US sanctions, Iran has taken its first major diplomatic step to pressurize the signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. The country will partially stop complying with some of the conditions of the deal and take further action if the other signatories do not manage to convince the US to withdraw its sanctions.

On May 8, the first anniversary of the unilateral US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran announced that it would no longer stick to JCPOA norms on the amount of enriched uranium and heavy water it can store. The JCPOA had allowed Iran to enrich uranium and export excess amounts of the enriched uranium and heavy water. After the US withdrew from the deal, curbs were imposed on both the enriching and the exports. Iran’s decisions are in response to this. Iran has cited Sections 26 and 36 of the JCPOA that allow it to take such action if one of the signatories withdraws from the deal at any point of time.

The move is also a response to the Trump administration’s ending the exemptions from sanctions given to eight countries which import oil from Iran, including China, India and Turkey. The export of Iranian oil has gone down significantly in the last one year from around 2.5 million barrels per day to around 1.5 billion barrels per day, and is expected to go down even further after the end of the exemptions. The attempts of the Iranian state to sell its oil in the ‘grey market’ will not suffice to get enough revenue to sustain its economy and obtain essentials, including medicines. Iran’s economy is already under tremendous pressure due to the sanctions.

The European Union (France, Germany and Britain) had promised to put up a mechanism, Instrument for Support of Trade Exchanges (Instex), to avoid sanctions and continue trade with Iran. However, latest reports indicate the EU has decided to put it on hold, fearing secondary sanctions from the US. Iran sees this as a lack of political will to confront US dictates. China, a signatory to the deal, too has slowed down its oil imports from Iran in order to create space for bargaining in the ongoing trade negotiations with the US. Iran would like to draw these countries’ attention to its own economic problems through this partial withdrawal.

The Iranian government might also consider withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the deal on May 8, 2018, claiming that it was too soft on Iran. Over the months, it has taken a number of steps to wreck Iran’s economy by pushing the country’s oil exports to zero. It has also declared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one of the most important institutions of the state, as a global terrorist group. Recently, a US naval strike group has been reported to be heading towards the Persian Gulf. Experts have pointed out that rather than any violation of the deal, the trigger for the US decision was the rising influence of Iran in the region. The US, along with Israel and Saudi Arabia, wishes to minimize Iranian capabilities to support the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Syrian government.

Prior to the current declaration, Iran had declared the Central Command of the US as a terrorist entity. It termed the deployment of the naval strike group as “psychological warfare” and threatened to block oil trade from the Strait of Hormuz if it was not allowed to export oil.

Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, has been citing the mounting popular pressure on the Iranian administration over the past few months. The opposition in Iran wants counter-measures. At the same time, there is a fear that any strong counter measures could provide the US an excuse for military intervention. There are also concerns that economic hardships created due to the sanctions will weaken the Rouhani government further and strengthen conservative and hawkish forces. Therefore, the threat of a partial withdrawal is as much a move to neutralize domestic opposition.