A number of European countries announced on Monday, December 9, that they are putting all pending asylum requests submitted to them by Syrians on hold just one day after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown. These countries include Germany, Austria, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Greece and France, while Austria also unveiled that it has begun preparing a deportation program.
The announcements from the European countries, which would reportedly affect tens of thousands of asylum applications, were made as uncertainty looms over the security and political situation in Syria, which has been decimated by the civil war for almost 14 years. Reconstruction and the restoration of social, economic, and political stability in Syria are likely to take time in the transitional phase, during which the country would be walking into the unknown.
Meanwhile, Mohammad al-Bashir was appointed on Monday to form a new government in Syria by the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Abu Mohammad al-Julani and Syria’s former Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali, who was assigned by Al-Julani on Sunday, December 8 to supervise state institutions until they are handed over.
Who is al-Bashir?
Mohammad al-Bashir is a Syrian political leader, who was born in Idlib, in northwest Syria in 1983. He has two degrees, one in electrical and electronics engineering from Aleppo University, and another in law from Idlib University. He held different posts in the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), a governance body that was established by HTS in Idlib in 2017. He served as Minister of Development and Humanitarian Affairs and since the beginning of 2024 till al-Assad was overthrown on Sunday, he served as head of the SSG.
Challenges ahead for Al-Bashir
As he was appointed on Monday to oversee Syria’s transition phase, Al-Bashir will face multiple challenges on the national, regional and international levels. In terms of security and stability in Syria, there are still numerous armed groups affiliated to different factions and ideologies active in Syria, some of which are rivals to HTS.
As thousands of Syrian prisoners have been released since HTS took over Syria, it will be difficult to distinguish between political prisoners, and those who were detained for committing crimes. This may result in chaos, insecurity, and instability. Syria also will need much time, strenuous efforts, careful planning, and huge funding for reconstruction and economic recovery.
The regional context does not seem to be less challenging for the new transitional government. Israel forms the biggest danger not only to Syria, but also to the whole region with its expansionist plans to achieve the “Greater Israel” Project. Israeli plans could not be ignored, especially after the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) advanced into the Golan buffer zone and have been launching airstrikes on targets in Syria’s capital Damascus since the ouster of al-Assad.
As for Lebanon, the possibility of creating relations between Hezbollah in southern Lebanon with the new HTS-led government are still unforeseeable, given Hezbollah’s previous support to al-Assad’s administration during the civil war. This also may affect any prospect for HTS to build ties with Iran and probably with Iraq, where Iran has influence. When it comes to Syria’s northern borders, the conflict between Türkiye and US-backed Kurdish groups have been raging.
On the international level, the United States and its allies have always had imperialist interests in Syria, and al-Assad’s ouster will further consolidate the influence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the West Asia region. The US has the strategic military base of Al-Tanf located at the tri-border area between Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, overlooking a critical supply route between Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. The US presence in Syria foreshadows a direct threat to Syria’s sovereignty and an expected US intervention in its internal affairs.
On the other hand, Russia has military bases of strategic importance in Syria, along with its only overseas naval base located in the port of Tartus on the Syrian Mediterranean coast. Russia confirmed it was in contact with representatives of the “armed Syrian opposition”, who reassured Moscow that the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria will be guaranteed. However, this reassurance would not take away the fact that Syria would remain an arena for international conflict over dominance of the Mediterranean.
