As Israeli forces advanced into the Golan buffer zone and initiated airstrikes on targets in the Syrian capital of Damascus, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in a video published on X that the collapse of Assad’s government on Sunday, December 8, “is a direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters.” Meanwhile, images circulated across social media of members of the armed opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) taking control over Damascus, invading the Iranian embassy in the capital and tearing down posters of late Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
The dramatic events took place after groups led by HTS launched a surprise offensive on November 27, against Syrian government forces in the Aleppo governorate. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the former leader of Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch Al-Nusra front which rebranded as HTS. In the following 12 days, the groups, some of which are backed by the United States, Turkey, and covertly Israel, quickly advanced and gained control of key Syrian cities with little resistance until reaching the capital Damascus on December 8.
The fall of Assad’s government has sent a shock wave across the region and the world. The Syrian government had been engaged in a protracted civil war since 2011, which eventually saw armed opposition groups, including ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates, take control over large swathes of territory. The United States officially intervened in the conflict in 2014, carrying out extensive airstrikes as well as territorial deployment alongside Kurdish forces in the north, which continues to this day. Syria’s allies including Russia, Iran, and Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah, played a central role in the military campaign to regain control over the majority of Syrian territory and defeat the Islamic State and other terrorist groups. Importantly, the coalition of armed opposition groups retained control over the Idlib governorate, from where they evidently regrouped to launch their latest offensive.
Analysts, and even Netanyahu himself, have pointed out that the timing of this offensive was no coincidence. The HTS-led offensive began on the same day that a ceasefire deal was reached between a significantly-weakened Hezbollah and Israel. The critical support Syria received in its fight against opposition groups in the last decade, was significantly reduced as its partners and allies have been engaged in their own arduous wars and conflicts.
Lebanese American journalist Rania Khalek wrote on December 5, “There is a feeling that all the forces against Syria – Turkey, the US, Israel, etc – have joined forces to attack the resistance axis at one of its weakest moments, taking advantage of the last year plus of genocide in Gaza, destruction in Lebanon and Russia being bogged down in Ukraine. All this while US sanctions and bad governance hollowed out what was left of the Syrian state and its remaining institutions. Everyone fears even darker days ahead.”
Additionally, with Israel’s advance on the Golan buffer zone, many now fear that it will seek to advance its annexation goals for the Golan Heights.
In a 2018 article written by Nour Samaha for The Intercept, she warned that, taking advantage of the war, Israel at the time was “expanding its influence and control deeper into opposition-held southern Syria.” Samaha argued that this advance through NGOs and backing opposition groups was partially in response to Israel’s anxiety about “increasing Iranian influence in Syria and Hezbollah’s presence close to its northern border”, but also ultimately part of its “aim of cementing Israel’s hold on the Golan Heights.” She reported at the time that there was an increase in Israeli settlement activity within the Occupied Golan Heights.
Israeli forces stated the deployment to the buffer zone was “to ensure the safety of the communities of the Golan Heights and the citizens of Israel. We emphasize that the IDF is not interfering with the internal events in Syria.”
Meanwhile, Israel continues to carry out airstrikes on Syria’s capital targeting strategic sites such as ammunition and weapons depots and the Mezzeh airbase, reportedly to prevent the sites from falling into the hands of the new government.
Iran, the foremost ally of the Assad government, responded to the developments in Syria during a cabinet session on Sunday, December 8. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated, “We stress the importance of preserving Syria’s unity and sovereignty, with its people deciding the country’s future and political system. We emphasize the importance of dialogue among all segments of Syrian society to reach an understanding, and we hope for an end to military confrontations.” The head of state added that Iran condemns Israel’s “violation of Syrian territory and calls on all parties and countries in the region to be vigilant against its aims.”
The country also condemned the incursion into its embassy in Damascus.
US President Joe Biden speaking in a press conference held at the White House, praised the government takeover by HTS as a “fundamental act of justice” but also that “the fall of the Assad regime in Syria is also a moment of risk and uncertainty.”
In 2017, the US had declared that it considers HTS a “designated terrorist org”. The US Embassy in Syria posted an image of HTS leader al-Julani, who himself had been declared a global terrorist as early as 2013, and stated “we remain committed to bringing leading AQS figures in HTS to justice”, offering a USD 10 million reward for his capture.
