July 1 marks one year since José Raúl Mulino took office as president of Panama. In the general elections of May 5, 2024, the right-wing candidate of the Alliance to Save Life won with 34.23% of the valid votes, ahead of Ricardo Lombana (24.59%), Martin Torrijos (16.02%), Romulo Roux (11.39%), and others.
Mulino had promised an administration that would bring economic prosperity and social tranquility to Panama. However, his government has been characterized by following the canon of neoliberalism and aligning itself with Washington’s foreign policy without hesitation, despite the long legacy of US intervention that weighs heavily on Panamanian history. These and other factors have provoked enormous resistance on the part of organized workers through mobilizations and a national strike that has lasted several months.
Because of these and other government actions, the popularity of the Mulino administration has plummeted drastically. According to the polling firm Consultoría Interdisciplinar y Desarrollo, only 9% of Panamanians believe that the country is heading in the right direction.
What has caused such a steep decline in the government’s popularity?
Historic protests
Health workers, teachers, unions, student organizations, agricultural workers, and more remain on indefinite strike in Panama. So far, they have been on strike for more than 60 days of protests, demonstrations, road closings, etc. The protests, which have been categorized as “historic”, have demonstrated the resilience of Panamanian workers. The unity of workers across different sectors and their unyielding commitment to their demands have received international attention and support.
Several converging factors explain the mobilizations. On the one hand, there is a profound desire for sovereignty, deepened by the government’s alignment with the geopolitical interests of Washington (as will be seen below). On the other hand, there is the mass rejection of the proposal to reopen the country’s largest copper mine, which was closed following major protests in 2023.
But the issue that has provoked the greatest animosity is the approval of Law 462, a pension system reform that readjusts the retirement age, affects the pensions to be received by retirees, and opens the door for privatizing Social Security.
Read more: “Without struggle, there is no victory”: Why the Panamanian people are standing up to their government and the US
The government’s response to the demands of the organized workers has been to resort to repression, especially in the border and banana-growing province of Bocas del Toro, where the protests have taken on a more active character through road closures and the paralyzation of agricultural activities by striking workers. Several dozen social leaders have been arrested and prosecuted thanks to the massive deployment of 1,900 security agents.
In addition, the government has decided on two occasions to declare a state of emergency to “liberate” the roads from the closures carried out by the protesters. For his part, Saúl Méndez, secretary general of the country’s largest union (SUNTRACS), has taken refuge in the Bolivian Embassy due to threats of arrest by the government.
For now, Mulino has said that he will not backtrack on Law 462, and that at some point “the workers will get tired of marching” (a narrative that has further outraged the mobilized workers). The demonstrators, for their part, have said that they will continue to protest until the law is repealed. The strike and protests are expected to continue for several weeks.
A great ally of Washington
In front of the cameras, Mulino has recited the mantra of Panamanian sovereignty over the Panama Canal and the rest of the national territory, although the facts seem to contradict his nationalist presentation. In December, Donald Trump announced his intention to regain his country’s former influence over the canal and undermine Chinese influence in the region; he warned that if this is not achieved diplomatically, they may simply “retake” control of the commercial infrastructure.
After several visits by senior Trump administration officials, the Mulino administration annulled the agreements it had signed in 2017 with the Chinese government to structure what Beijing calls the New Silk Road. Now, US vessels have priority when navigating the Panama Canal.
The Mulino administration’s commitment to Washington does not end there. After several conversations with US Defense and State Department officials, Panama signed a security agreement with the North American country expanding military and intelligence cooperation between the two nations. For example, it is now possible for several US military personnel to carry out “rotating stays” at the Panamanian military bases of Sherman, Howard, and Rodman, according to Pete Hegseth, US Secretary of Defense.
However, the most controversial aspect of the agreement is the option for the United States to install several military bases in the Central American country, which still remembers the 1989-1990 invasion that killed thousands of Panamanian civilians, according to the Association of the Relatives of the Fallen.
Closure of the Darien Gap
In addition to its commercial and military importance, the Panamanian territory is enormously significant for Washington’s immigration policy, as it is home to the Darien Gap, a jungle region that hundreds of thousands of South Americans and other migrants cross on their way to the United States. After Mulino took office and carried out his relentless immigration policy, the number of people crossing the Darien has been reduced almost completely (about 99%).
“We will not allow any more migrants in that area of the Darien. I am very pleased to have complied and closed the Darien, with what this means for regional and Panamanian security,” said Mulino.
His government also offered to make Panama yet another country where people deported from the US could be detained. To date, several deported Asian migrants remain in Panamanian immigration centers. The secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, who recently visited Panama, promised seven million dollars to Panama to continue sending deportees, a process that has been replicated in Costa Rica and, the most controversial of all, El Salvador, although the conditions of deportees in Panama are much more “humanitarian” than those experienced by Venezuelans deported to San Salvador.
A pro-business government
In 2023, huge protests in Panama forced the Supreme Court to declare the operations of the country’s largest copper mine illegal. The mine was run by the Canadian company First Quantum Minerals (FQM). Despite this, Mulino has shown himself to be open to reactivating the operations of the mining company if the lawsuits that the Canadian company had initiated against Panama in international courts are suspended.
The proposal to reactivate the mine has provoked widespread anguish in Panamanian society. They see Mulino’s stance as a complete dismissal of the resounding rejection that the Panamanian people demonstrated in 2023 against FQM. This is not unique for Mulino’s administration, which in a meeting in New York said that his government is “pro-private enterprise”.
Mulino has bet on the labor of young people through the program “My First Job”, which so far has provided jobs to almost 3,000 people. However, he also opted for a reduction in public spending – as required by neoliberal doctrine – to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4% as mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Law.
Another of Mulino’s emblematic projects is the construction of 475 km of railroad tracks for a train linking Panama City to the city of David. The project seeks to boost the agricultural economy and the trade of goods, mainly.
However, the government’s projects have been overshadowed by social instability and strong criticism of the government by the opposition
Mulino still has several years to go in the administration, and his popularity has taken a severe hit. However, he has also demonstrated a sort of stoic attitude that could prove beneficial in the short term, but potentially detrimental in the long term.
