Lula could win Brazilian presidential elections if the first round was held today

In recent polls, the leftist former president has a strong lead over far-right incumbent Bolsonaro or any other candidate

July 07, 2022 by Brasil de Fato
Former president has a large advantage over Bolsonaro - NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP

Two new polls released on July 6 indicate that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Worker’s Party) is the most likely to win Brazilian presidential elections, followed by sitting far-right President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party).

According to polling organization PoderData, Lula has 44% of voter support, and Bolsonaro has 36%. They are followed by Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party), with 5%, and candidates André Janones (Avante) and Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), both with 3%. Other candidates Luiz Felipe d’Avila (New Party), Pablo Marçal (Republican Party of Social Order), Luciano Bivar (Union Brazil), Leonardo Péricles (Popular Unity), Eymael (Christian Democracy), Sofia Manzano (Brazilian Communist Party), and Vera Lúcia (United Socialist Workers’ Party) did not even reach 1% of voter support. Blank and null votes, which are, respectively, a vote for none of the candidates by pressing a white button or typing a random number, accounted for 5% of respondents. 4% of respondents did not know their answer.

Former President Lula has significant support in the Northeast region of Brazil, where he supersedes Bolsonaro with 56% points versus 30%. Bolsonaro is most popular among the people of northern Brazil, with 56% of voter support, while Lula holds 36%.

The Worker’s Party candidate has a big advantage over Bolsonaro among women, youth, and low-income voters, while Bolsonaro has more support among voters whose income is five times or more the amount of the minimum wage.

A Genial/Quaest poll shows that Lula could win the presidential election if it took place today. He has 45% of valid votes against 42% votes towards all the other candidates combined. This poll’s results are the same as PoderData’s when considering the margin of error.

Within the Genial/Quaest poll, in a scenario where there are 12 pre-candidates for the presidency, Lula holds 43% of the votes and Bolsonaro 31%. Ciro Gomes is in third place with 6%, followed by André Janones and Simone Tebet, both with 2% of voter support. Pablo Marçal received 1%, and the other candidates did not score.

Genial/Quaest poll also simulated a second round, which shows that former President Lula would win against Brazil’s current president, Ciro Gomes, and Simone Tebet. In a second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the former has 53% of voter support, and the latter, 34%; Lula versus Ciro would have Lula winning with 25% more votes than Ciro. Lula versus Tebet would result in 55% points versus 20%, respectively.

Bolsonaro leads in voter rejection, with 59% of voters saying they would not vote for him. Ciro’s rejection rate is 53%, and Lula’s is 41%.

The PoderData poll was conducted between July 3 and 5, with 3,000 respondents interviewed via automated calls to landlines and cell phones. The Quaest poll was held between June 29 and July 2. Quaest conducted 2,000 personal, home, and face-to-face interviews. The margin of error for PoderData and Genial/Quaest polls is plus or minus two percentage points.

This article was originally published in Brasil de Fato.