Lula continues to lead in all major polls on Brazilian presidential race

New poll results show that Workers’ Party candidate Lula maintains strong lead against far-right Jair Bolsonaro, who is in second place

August 17, 2022 by Brasil de Fato
Lula and Bolsonaro are the two frontrunners in the electoral race for the presidency of Brazil - Ricardo Stuckert and Divulgação

On August 17, two polling companies, Quaest, commissioned by Banco Genial, and PoderData released two more national polls on voting intentions for the presidency of Brazil in the October elections.

These latest polls were released following the beginning of the official campaign period. Studies were released by FSB/BTG and Ipec on August 15, and a poll is expected from Datafolha on August 18.

Check out the latest results below:

Quaest: Lula with a 14-point lead

The latest Quaest Consultoria national survey, released on August 3, showed that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) was still in the lead for the presidency, with 44% of voter intention. President Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) had 32%.

Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) got 5%, André Janones of Avante, who dropped out of the race, had 2%, as did Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB). Pablo Marçal of the Republican Party of the Social Order (PROS) had 1%. In relation to the previous survey, Lula and Bolsonaro oscillated within the margin of error, which is 2 percentage points more or less. In July, the PT candidate had 45% and the PL candidate had 31%.

The survey interviewed 2,000 people face to face, between June 28 and July 31, and was commissioned by Genial Investimentos. The confidence index is 95%. The survey was registered at the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-02546/2022 and cost R$139,005.86.

PoderData: Lula with a 9-point lead

The latest PoderData survey, released on August 4, showed Lula well in the lead of the electoral race for the Presidential Palace, with 44% of voting intention. Bolsonaro had only 35%. In the previous survey by the same research company, published 15 days earlier, the current president had 37%, while the PT candidate had the same 44%.

In the study, Ciro Gomes oscillated one point upward and reached 7%. Simone Tebet also grew below the margin of error, from 3% to 4% of voting intentions. André Janones, now out of the race, remained steady at 2%. Luiz Felipe Dávila of Novo and Eymael of the Christian Democracy party (DC) had 1% each. The other candidates did not register any points.

In valid votes, according to the numbers presented by PoderData, Lula reached 45%, which was not enough for a victory in the 1st round. To win without the need for a second round, it is necessary for Lula to exceed 50% of the valid vote.

The data was collected from July 31 to August 2, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 322 cities in the 27 states of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points and the confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-08398/2022.

This article was written by Paulo Motoryn and originally published on Brasil de Fato.