The Biden administration responded optimistically to Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Rafah on October 17.
The White House immediately hailed his death as an “opportunity for a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power” because Sinwar was an “insurmountable obstacle” to any political settlement in the enclave.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unsurprisingly vowed to continue Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. “The war, my dear ones, is not yet over,” he told Israelis on the day of Sinwar’s killing. “We have before us a great opportunity to stop the axis of evil.”
Israel’s leadership is now ever more confident in its war strategies and will continue waging death and destruction in Gaza.
Having ignored President Joe Biden’s ‘red line’ on Rafah only to invade the city in southern Gaza earlier this year, Netanyahu’s government feels vindicated given that this is where the Israelis killed the Hamas leader last week.
Meanwhile, international opinion seems to have no impact on the Israeli government’s decision-making as long as Washington’s support remains steadfast.
The consequences of no consequences for Israel
With the Biden administration ensuring that Israel faces no consequences for its killing sprees in the West Asia, Tel Aviv’s continual escalation can be taken for granted.
There is no denying that the Biden team’s talk of seeking de-escalation in the region contradicts its actual policies. Put simply, the White House’s actions (and inactions) have been directly fueling the regionalization and internationalization of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Speaking of a “colossal foreign policy failure that’s still in the making” which might be “one of the worst foreign policy disasters in the post-Cold War era,” Dr. Nader Hashemi, director of Georgetown University’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, fundamentally attributes blame for the expansion of the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts to the White House.
Dr. Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, agrees. He speaks of the Biden administration’s foreign policy as an “abject failure”.
In an interview with The New Arab, Dr. Kamrava pointed out that the White House’s “unconditional embrace” of the Israeli war on Gaza combined with the Biden team’s “absolute refusal to condemn Israel’s systematic conduct of genocide in Palestine through restrictions on weapons of event statements” have made the administration Tel Aviv’s “partner” in this carnage while leaving the Netanyahu government with the perception that its hands are “completely free” to wage these military campaigns.
“As months passed and the US refused to see anything wrong with Israel’s blatant violations of human rights, Netanyahu became more emboldened and more brazen in his carnage in Palestine and later in Lebanon also. By positioning itself squarely as Israel’s partner, the US lost any and all ability for maneuverability separately from the Israelis. The Biden administration has therefore rendered US foreign policy completely irrelevant and has made it an extension of Israel’s policy of genocide and ethnic cleansing,” explained Dr. Kamrava.
“The Biden administration’s steadfast refusal or unwillingness to establish guardrails or redlines on Israel has led to the expansion of this war. It’s clear to me that Benjamin Netanyahu realizes that he can do almost anything he wants and there will be no one to stop him,” Dr. Hashemi told TNA.
Netanyahu’s address before a joint session of the US Congress on July 24, in which he received 58 standing ovations, was an important moment. “It’s not a coincidence that a week later he escalated oppression in Gaza, assassinated a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon, and then assassinated Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. He came back from that meeting, where he met with Biden and he met with [Vice President Kamala] Harris, realizing that has solid and unflinching support from the United States,” commented Dr. Hashemi.
The Lebanese front
Israel’s military and Hezbollah have been fighting each other since the Lebanese group attacked the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms on October 8, 2023.
But recent weeks have witnessed major escalations with the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 following the pager and walkie-talkie attacks, along with intense Israeli bombing of Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, and Hezbollah operations against Haifa and elsewhere in Israel. More than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced since last month.
Although the White House frequently spoke about its desire to see the Gaza war not expand into Lebanon, the Biden administration did nothing to prevent that outcome, even if initially it did not necessarily support the Gaza conflict’s spillover into Lebanon. Nonetheless, some seemingly credible reports claim that high-ranking officials in the White House encouraged Tel Aviv to escalate.
“The idea that Washington only learned of developments [regarding Israel’s military operations in Lebanon] after being informed by Israel is laughable. We are being asked to believe US intelligence had advanced knowledge of the Russian invasion of Ukraine etc., but no clue about the actions of a close ally with whom it has an intensive security and intelligence relationship,” Mouin Rabbani, a political analyst and co-editor of Jadaliyya, told TNA.
It is clear that Biden administration officials sense that Israel’s tactical gains in Lebanon – from the exploding telecommunication devices and the killings of Nasrallah along with other high-ranking Hezbollah figures – mean that the Lebanese group is being defeated.
This is an outcome that the White House welcomes and is pleased to see these perceived gains on Israel’s part, believing that they serve Washington’s interests too. Of course, the extent to which Hezbollah continues attacking Israel, and even Netanyahu-affiliated targets, speaks to how incorrect this assessment has proven.
“After assessing Israeli successes against Hezbollah, and probably coming to a similar conclusion that Hezbollah was collapsing and could be shattered, and that this could be leveraged to reshape the Middle East and North Africa’s strategic environment, I think Washington is now fully on board with the Israeli agenda,” commented Rabbani.
There is a high level of “enthusiasm and excitement” over Israeli conduct in Lebanon among Biden’s senior advisors because these individuals see it as a chance to “redraw the political landscape in the Middle East in the direction and in support of US interests,” holds Dr. Hashemi.
“Here we have Israel basically doing things that the United States wished it could do itself, but Israel is effectively carrying out these operations on behalf of the United States,” he added.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics.
This article was first published in The New Arab and lightly edited to reflect recent events.